According to global intelligence firm ABI Research, the total install base for the U.S. mobile driver’s license (mDL) market is expected to reach 143 million by 2030, up from 21.73 million in 2025. This surge reflects growing momentum around REAL ID and mobile driver’s license compliance, as states push toward digital identification solutions.

This growth is being driven by three key factors: the REAL ID-compliant requirement for domestic air travel, third-party digital wallet providers like Apple and Google offering their mDLs for free to U.S. states, and the growing trend of U.S. states adopting the EU model by creating an all-encompassing government credential digital wallet.

“Although a small and steady number of states are choosing to roll their mDL into an all-in-one state credential digital wallet, most states are deploying an mDL-only approach to their digital licenses. The only real difference is if the mDL can be used as a full alternative to a physical license or only for domestic air travel,”

explains Ash Robinson, Research Analyst at ABI Research.

ABI Research forecasts that by the end of 2030, 40 U.S. states will have implemented mobile driver’s licenses independently or through third-party digital wallet providers. The adoption of mDLs in the US typically progresses through 3 stages:

First, mDLs are tested in pilot phases, often in small-scale trials such as in a large town or small city.

Second, once deployed, mDLs are initially used primarily for domestic flights, allowing for widespread adoption while undergoing testing for any overlooked issues from the pilot phase.

And third, mDLs are fully integrated as alternatives to physical licenses, accepted by law enforcement and for age verification purposes.

According to Robinson, “Mobile driver’s licenses in the US will see a large rise in usage in 2030 compared to use in the present day, but they will not totally replace their physical counterparts as U.S. mDLs are derived in nature with a physical license being needed to act as the primary documentation for mDL activation. Currently, 60% of the US driving population use a mDL.”

Over the next 10 years, U.S. mDL innovators and implementers need to focus efforts and strategies across two key areas: creating a standardized ruleset for mobile driver’s license regulation like the REAL ID scheme for physical licenses and, secondly, expanding use cases and functionality to achieve a multi-purpose, singular government digital wallet.

Mobile Driver’s Licenses & Digital ID in Europe – Current Situation:

1. EU-Wide Digital Identity Framework (eIDAS 2.0):

• The European Union has approved the eIDAS 2.0 regulation, which mandates that each member state offer a European Digital Identity Wallet (EUDI Wallet) by 2026.
• This wallet can include mobile driver’s licenses, health records, diplomas, and more — all in one secure app.

2. Mobile Driver’s Licenses (mDLs):

• Germany, France, Italy, the Czech Republic, and Austria are among the early movers testing or piloting mDLs.
• Some are integrating mDLs into their national digital ID apps, while others are waiting for EU-wide standards before full rollout.

3. Interoperability & Standards:

• Europe is pushing for cross-border interoperability so that digital IDs and mDLs can be used across member states (e.g., renting a car in another country or checking into a hotel).

4. Privacy-First Design:

• Unlike the U.S., the EU strongly emphasizes privacy and user consent, using a decentralized model where users control what data is shared.

5. Use Cases Expanding:

• Early uses include eGovernment services, access to banking, university records, and even electronic prescriptions.
• mDLs are expected to be accepted for driving, age verification, and police checks, just like physical licenses.