Who’s really making money on eSIMs right now—mobile operators, digital-first brands, or the platforms powering the downloads?
The answer is messy (and changing fast).

Here’s a clear-eyed look at eSIM unit economics in late 2025—where the money comes from, where it leaks, and how margins are shifting across retail, wholesale, and IoT layers.

The Size of the Prize

If you only read device forecasts, you’d think eSIM was already a gold rush. Counterpoint Research projects more than 9 billion eSIM and iSIM-capable devices will ship by 2030, representing roughly 70% of all cellular hardware worldwide.

But device readiness doesn’t equal active usage. GSMA Intelligence reports that only around 3% of global smartphone connections were eSIM-based in 2024, with adoption skewed heavily toward the United States, where Apple’s eSIM-only iPhones pushed usage to around 30%.

That gap—between devices that can use eSIM and consumers who actually do—explains the uneven revenue picture emerging across the market.

Where the Money Is Right Now

Two high-growth segments dominate the revenue mix today:

1. Travel eSIM retail.

According to Juniper Research, travel eSIM package revenue will reach ~$1.8 billion by end-2025, up about 85% year-over-year. Most of that comes from frequent travelers, digital nomads, and tourists fed up with roaming bills.

2. Enterprise and IoT.

Kaleido Intelligence forecasts 4.5 billion eSIM connections by 2030, largely driven by IoT and automotive applications rather than smartphones. These long-term contracts are less flashy than travel eSIMs, but they generate recurring wholesale revenue and platform stickiness.

Together, those forces form the two-speed economy of eSIM—consumer retail for short-term cash, IoT for durable growth.

Following the Money: A €10 Travel eSIM

Let’s trace a typical €10 eSIM top-up (say, 3–5 GB valid for one or two weeks):

After all that, gross margin per order (before marketing) sits around 35–60% for lean, web-first brands.

But customer acquisition cost (CAC) is the hidden killer: Google Ads for “eSIM Japan” or “eSIM Europe” spike around holidays and can erase margin fast. SEO, partnerships, and email retargeting often separate profitable brands from those just chasing installs.

Operators’ Economics: Offense and Defense

For mobile operators, eSIM is both a new weapon and a necessary shield.

• Offense: Travel eSIMs let them capture tourists and upsell global plans to loyal subscribers.
• Defense: They also cannibalize old-school roaming revenue but help prevent churn.

Operators enjoy scale and direct network access, which can yield 40–70% gross margins on their eSIM travel packs. But they’re slower to iterate — and often late to SEO or app-store visibility battles dominated by agile digital brands.

Still, the trend is shifting. Juniper expects a wave of new operator travel eSIM launches through 2026, as telcos reclaim market share lost to digital-first startups.

Platforms and Wholesalers: Low Margin, High Stickiness

Beneath the flashy retail apps are RSP platforms (SM-DP+, SM-SR, and entitlement servers) and wholesale aggregators offering global connectivity via multi-IMSI technology.

Their economics resemble cloud infrastructure: thinner margins (20–40%) but reliable, contracted volumes across multiple clients. Add-ons—like analytics, anti-fraud systems, and IoT device management—sweeten ARPU and increase retention.

Why Margins Live or Die on Four Levers

1. Wholesale Data Cost—the single biggest variable.
   Brands using multi-IMSI routing can cut costs by up to 40% in some regions by dynamically choosing cheaper partner networks without compromising quality.
2. Transaction Channel—web vs. app store.
   Selling directly on the web avoids Apple/Google fees (~15%), improving profitability instantly.
3. Refund & Install Rates—every failed QR activation eats margin.
   Clear UX, proactive device checks, and transparent coverage info matter as much as wholesale pricing.
4. Customer Support Efficiency.
   Asynchronous chat and automated troubleshooting reduce per-user costs dramatically; live phone support destroys economics unless the AOV is high.

The Adoption Gap: Awareness, Trust, and UX

Even with billions of eSIM-ready devices, global adoption remains low. Consumers still ask:
“Will I lose my number?” “Is it safe?” “Does it work on my Samsung?”

GSMA Intelligence confirms that just 3% of global smartphone connections use eSIM, though adoption is rising fastest in North America and Western Europe.

As Android OEMs like Samsung and Xiaomi standardize one-tap eSIM setup and dual-SIM management, that number should climb rapidly over the next three years.

Commoditization and Margin Defense

By 2026, nearly every operator, OTA, and travel app will be selling some version of a travel eSIM. When everyone’s product looks identical—“5GB Europe Plan, valid 30 days”—prices fall and customer acquisition costs rise.

Smart brands defend margins by:

• Bundling extras (lounge passes, insurance, or airport transfers).
• Differentiating on network quality (5G SA, VoLTE/VoWiFi, latency).
• Adding local numbers or inbound SMS for real utility.

The future profit isn’t in “selling data MBs”—it”’s in packaging connectivity as part of a broader travel experience.

IoT and Automotive: Quiet Giants in the Background

While travel eSIMs dominate headlines, automotive and IoT deployments will quietly generate the largest share of eSIM revenue long-term.

Counterpoint Research expects those sectors to anchor the 9-billion-device wave by 2030.
Transatel (Ubigi) CEO Jacques Bonifay recently called connected cars “the new mobile office,” as automakers embed eSIMs for real-time diagnostics, over-the-air updates, and passenger Wi-Fi.

For providers, IoT is less volatile: long-term contracts, predictable ARPU, and minimal churn—all the traits travel eSIMs lack.

What “Good” Margins Look Like in 2025

These ranges reflect modeled averages based on public data, pricing analysis, and GSMA cost frameworks—not audited financials.

Comparing Forecasts: Kaleido vs. GSMA

Market analysts don’t always agree on growth rates:

• Kaleido Intelligence projects 4.5B active eSIM connections by 2030.
• GSMA Intelligence has revised its long-range projection downward in 2025, citing slower-than-expected consumer onboarding in some regions.

But both agree on the direction: rapid growth, uneven adoption, and strong enterprise pull.

Competitive Context: eSIM vs. MVNO vs. Roaming

Compared with traditional MVNOs, eSIM startups skip physical logistics and retail rent, making cash cycles faster. Their costs swing on roaming wholesale rates, not interconnects.

Compared with classic roaming resellers, eSIM brands win on convenience and transparency—but cannibalize roaming margins for operators. eSIM business model

Under the surface, platform providers (SM-DP+, SM-SR) resemble cloud infrastructure vendors—lower per-unit margins but recurring, high-volume revenues.

2026–2030: What’s Next

• Operator offensive: Juniper forecasts that most major MNOs will have full travel eSIM portfolios by 2026.
• Mass connections: Kaleido’s 4.5B eSIM connections will keep wholesalers busy.
• Hardware pull: Counterpoint’s 9B eSIM-capable devices signal the physical infrastructure is ready.
• Consolidation: As CPAs rise and wholesale prices converge, larger multi-brand portfolios will acquire smaller niche players.

Conclusion: Profits Hide in the Plumbing

If you’re judging the eSIM boom by shiny apps and influencer campaigns, you’re missing the real story.

The winners aren’t the loudest marketers — they’re the quiet infrastructure experts who:

• Negotiate ruthless wholesale rates via multi-IMSI and steering,
• Optimize checkout and payment economics, and
• Reduce refunds through reliability and automation.

Platforms and telcos closest to the network pipes will keep steady, compounding margins even as retail competition intensifies.

Meanwhile, retail-only brands can absolutely thrive—if they own organic traffic, defend SEO, and build travel perks that extend beyond “a few gigabytes.”

Compared to similar players, MVNOs carry more fixed costs, and roaming resellers face faster erosion. By 2030, a world of 9B xSIM-ready devices doesn’t mean easy money—it means survival through efficiency.

For anyone building in this space, the moral is clear:
eSIM isn’t a product. It’s a stack—and the deeper you own that stack, the healthier your margins will look when the next price war hits.