A new report from connectivity specialist research house Kaleido Intelligence has found that eSIM connections across consumer and Internet of Things (IoT) segments will reach 4.5 billion in 2030, up from 500 million in 2024.

eSIM use is rapidly gathering traction in smartphones, while 2025 will see the first commercial launches of IoT specification eSIMs, signaling a new era for the technology.

eSIM IoT specification bursts onto the scene

The new research, eSIM Market Outlook & Opportunities 2025, highlighted how long-awaited SGP.32 (IoT specification)-compliant eSIMs will arrive on the market during the latter half of 2025. By 2027, around 50 million SGP.32-compliant eSIMs are forecast to be managed globally. While the specification represents an important step forward for eSIM in the IoT ecosystem, the nascent state of this ecosystem means a long road ahead in terms of testing, interoperability, and solutions to lower complexity. Notably, compliance testing will only ensure standard features are interoperable, while the interaction between different OSs, devices, and eIMs (eSIM IoT Manager) has yet to be tested broadly.

“SGP.32 makes eSIM possible for all IoT devices, given its architecture and protocol support”, remarked research author Steffen Sorrell. “But concerns over lock-in and interoperability remain high at this stage. Nevertheless, eSIM will become a de facto choice for IoT connectivity around 2028.”

Smartphone traction brings new challenges and opportunities

eSIM traction in the smartphone market is taking hold, with activation rates among these devices expected to reach 75% by 2030. Importantly, China’s regulator has recently relaxed rules around eSIM use in domestic smartphones, which will see the first eSIM-enabled devices come to market on a limited basis during Q3 2025, with a national launch envisioned in 2026.

Alongside growing operator support for the technology, eSIM has now found its way into sub-$500 segments, while travel eSIM use has led to significant RSP (Remote SIM Provisioning) transactions among management platform players. While this cements eSIM as the future for consumer connectivity globally, an eSIM-first ecosystem brings new pressure to maintain underlying systems. Here, redundancy to ensure service availability as well as tight coupling between active and failover instances will be required. Meanwhile, measures to control potential fraud will become core issues for operators and their suppliers, who will need a greater emphasis on analytics and tooling to detect suspicious behavior.

Final thoughts

As eSIM technology continues its rapid evolution, its increasing adoption across both consumer and IoT sectors marks a pivotal shift in global connectivity. By 2030, eSIM connections are set to become ubiquitous, with a transformative impact on industries ranging from smartphones to the broader Internet of Things. The emergence of SGP.32-compliant eSIMs for IoT devices in 2025 signals a significant step toward standardized, scalable, and flexible connectivity solutions. However, the journey ahead will require overcoming challenges related to interoperability, complexity, and potential security concerns, particularly in the IoT ecosystem.

For stakeholders, from manufacturers to telecom operators, the focus must shift to refining testing frameworks, fostering global compatibility, and ensuring seamless integration across diverse devices and platforms. As the eSIM ecosystem matures, innovations in management tools and fraud detection will be essential to safeguard against emerging risks. Ultimately, eSIM’s evolution is not just about driving connectivity; it will also reshape the way we think about data, device management, and security on a global scale. Those who adapt early will be well-positioned to lead in a world where eSIM is the default, unlocking new opportunities for innovation and efficiency across multiple industries.