Transforma Insights, led by veteran IoT analysts Jim Morrish and Matt Hatton, today established the new benchmark for global IoT forecasts, publishing the first iteration of its highly granular and rigorously researched TAM Database based on analysis of hundreds of applications. active iot devices

At the end of 2019 there were 7.6 billion active IoT devices, a figure which will grow to 24.1 billion in 2030, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11%, according to new research published today by Transforma Insights.

Short range technologies, such as WiFi, Bluetooth and Zigbee, will dominate connections, accounting for 72% in 2030, largely unchanged compared to the 74% it accounts for today. Public networks, which are dominated by cellular networks, will grow from 1.2 billion connections to 4.7 billion in 2030, growing market share from 16% to 20%. Private networks account for the balance of connections, 10% in 2019 and 8% in 2030.

In revenue terms, the total IoT market in 2019 was worth USD465 billion, a figure which will rise to USD1.5 trillion in 2030. Services, including connectivity, will account for 66% of spend, with the remainder accounted for by hardware, in the form of dedicated IoT devices, modules and gateways.

Commenting on the forecasts, Transforma Insights Founding Partner Jim Morrish said: “Matt and I are delighted to be back providing the highly granular and rigorously compiled IoT market forecasts with which we have been associated in the past. The value of a robust set of market data from a reputable source is not to be underestimated when planning to address the market opportunity.”

The consumer sector will dominate in terms of connected devices, accounting for 65% of all connections, up from 62% in 2019. Of the enterprise segment in 2030, 34% of devices will be accounted for by ‘cross-vertical’ use cases such as generic track-and-trace, office equipment and fleet vehicles, 31% by utilities, most prominently smart meters, 5% by transport and logistics, 4% by government, 4% for agriculture, and 3% each for financial services and retail/wholesale. The single biggest use case is Consumer Internet & Media devices, accounting for 1/3 of all devices in 2030. The next largest is Smart Grid, including smart meters, representing 14% of connections. Connected Vehicles, dominated by connected cars, is the third biggest category, representing 7% of the global installed base.

In financial terms, the biggest vertical sector is Consumer, generating USD652 billion in revenue, or 43% of the total market value. Cross-vertical applications account for 24%. The remaining 33% is sector-specific applications across sectors such as energy, transport, retail and healthcare. Transforma Insights Founding Partner Matt Hatton noted “One of the benefits of building a highly granular set of forecasts is that we can uncover striking trends, such as the huge USD500 billion revenue opportunity associated with a diverse range of niche vertical-specific applications.”

Geographically, China, North America and Europe dominate, accounting for 26%, 24% and 23% respectively of the total value of the IoT market in 2030.

Completing these forecasts has been complicated by an unpredictable business environment. Matt Arnott, Principal Analyst leading the forecasts at Transforma Insights, explained: “Naturally COVID-19 has loomed large in our consideration when completing these forecasts, having arisen during the process of compiling them. In a way the timing couldn’t have been worse, requiring a radical retake half way through the process. However it has allowed us to ensure that these forecasts take account of the impact in every number that we publish.” A forthcoming press release and blogpost will provide further analysis of the impact of COVID-19 and how we have adjusted our forecasts to reflect the change.