Data-Driven Strategies: The Solution to Over-Tourism?
Using data and intelligence to create an accurate picture of a destination’s accommodation can prevent overcrowding and overtourism, according to research from Horwath HTL and AllTheRooms. The study reported that rapid growth in travel following the pandemic had put unnecessary pressure on tourist locations, which could be resolved with balanced strategies, avoiding draconian legislation. Data-driven destination overtourism
The short-term rental market has been blamed for reductions to housing supply around the world, leading to mixed responses from local legislators, ranging from blanket bans to licensing and registration and time limits on listings.
The short-term rental market has grown across Europe, with gross revenue rising from 11.8bn in 2019 to 20.3bn euros in 2023, a 72% increase. The five largest markets—France, the UK, Italy, Spain, and Germany—collectively accounted for 74% of the total short-term rental revenue in 2023 in Europe. Just 10 countries, out of 27 measured in the study, generated 90% of the revenue.
Revenue in France grew 93% between 2019 and 2023. In the same period, Italy 87%, Spain 72% and UK 56%. Even Germany with some of the strictest legislation, grew 32%.
This growth has led many to blame short-term rentals for overtourism and overcrowding, but travel has been building gradually for the past 25 years as budget airlines spread globally. With gradual expansion came gradual adjustment by destinations, something that has been overwhelmed by the recent acceleration.
The backdrop to the images of angst between local populations and streets packed with visitors is the growing reliance of many economies on revenues from tourism. This latest study highlights that the difference between overcrowding and overtourism is effective destination management.
Siniša Topalović, ISHC, managing partner, Croatia, Horwath HTL, and one of the report’s authors, said:
“Let’s be clear: overtourism and overcrowding are not caused by visitors alone – they’re also the result of poor planning and institutional inertia. The real failure lies not in short-term rentals, but in more than a decade of strategic inaction, as booking platforms grew exponentially within a policy vacuum.
“Global experience has shown that one-size-fits-all restrictions and political quick fixes often do more harm than good. National tourism regulators and destination managers must act urgently and professionally. This is a call to move beyond reactive, fragmented measures and toward targeted, data-led strategies that align accommodation growth with affordable housing agenda, community resilience, and balanced development. The data exists. The tools exist. Delay is no longer neutral: It’s a decision against a sustainable future.”
Joe Stather, managing director, UK, Crowe UK/Horwath HTL, added:
“Robust analysis of data and intelligence is the key to creating a tourism strategy which balances the needs and desires of both residents and visitors.
“There is a place for short-term rental products in the market, but we believe that a successful model looks not only at the different requirements of each destination but also at the different appetites of each consumer. Hotels and serviced apartments are becoming more flexible, targeting families and groups of friends and bringing with them a consistency of product and supply that appeals to guests and local planners.” Data-driven destination overtourism
