Travel spending is projected to decline in 2025, according to the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA), as recent U.S. government policies introduce new challenges for the global business travel sector. A recent GBTA poll indicates that nearly one-third of global travel managers anticipate a significant decrease in business travel volume this year, with an average expected decline of 21%.

This downturn is attributed to a combination of factors, including newly imposed tariffs, stricter cross-border policies, and entry restrictions implemented by the U.S. government. These measures have led to increased detainment risks and advisories against travel to the U.S., causing uncertainty among international travelers and businesses alike.

As a result of these multiple initiatives, the poll reveals that:

• Less than half of global buyers (44%) anticipate that their organization’s business travel spending and volume in 2025 will not be impacted, compared to 25% of travel suppliers who say the same for their business travel revenue.
• Almost a third (29%) of global travel buyers expect a decline in business travel volume at their companies in 2025, averaging a 21% decrease. Additionally, a fairly large portion of travel buyers (19%) are uncertain about what the impact will be.
• Related, 27% of buyers now predict a 20% decrease on average in their business travel spending this year. (Notably, with global business travel spending forecast to reach $1.63 trillion USD in 2025, that could represent a potential decline in spending of up to $88 billion.
• 37% of travel suppliers and travel management company (TMC) professionals anticipate a decline of 18% on average in related revenue.
• Because of overall concerns, only 31% of global industry professionals remain optimistic about the overall industry outlook for this year, while 40% are neutral. This marks a significant decline from GBTA’s November 2024 poll where 67% of global industry professionals reported an optimistic outlook for 2025 and 26% were neutral.

“While the outlook for global business travel was incredibly strong coming into 2025, our research now shows increasing concerns and uncertainty within our industry, considering recent actions taken by the US government. Traveling for work plays a vital role in supporting business growth, resilient economies, strong diplomatic ties and valuable connections,” said Suzanne Neufang, CEO, GBTA.

“Productive and essential business travel is threatened in times of economic uncertainty or in an environment of additional barriers and restrictions. This undermines economic prosperity and damages the many sectors that rely on global business travel to survive and thrive.”

Neufang added that there are two key factors to watch that would influence the longer-term impact for business travel: if there’s sustained economic pressure or uncertainty weighing on company budgets and if cross-border travel and global workforce mobility to and from the US are restricted.

The GBTA poll reflects responses from travel managers (buyers), suppliers, travel management companies and other travel intermediaries from across four regions and 45 countries. Additional key findings include:

• 7% of buyer organizations have revised their corporate travel policies for travel to or from the US since January 2025, and another one-quarter (25%) say they are planning to or will consider doing so in the future. 64% are staying the course
• Additionally, up to 20% have or are considering cancelling, moving or pulling attendance from meetings and events located in the US.
• 10% are planning or considering cancelling employee attendance at US events
• When it comes to relocating meetings or events from the US, a total of 14% say their organization has already done so (8%) or is considering it (6%). Companies located outside of the US are three times more likely to relocate meetings to somewhere other than the US.
• Respondents’ top concerns for long-term impact of US government actions are related to economics ─ namely business travel costs (54%) and potential budget cuts (40%) ─ along with additional travel processing and administration needs such as visas or documentation (46%). This was followed closely by traveler-focused concerns such as employee willingness to travel to the US and increased safety and duty of care (both at 37%).
• Additionally, when asked if they personally know someone whose trip has been affected by US border or travel policy changes, 23% of global industry professionals say they do.
  Methodology

A total of 905 responses were received by GBTA from global travel buyers, suppliers, and other industry professionals across North America, Europe, Latin America, Asia-Pacific, Africa, and the Middle East for the poll fielded March 31 to April 8, 2025.