Juniper Research Reveals Top 5 Countries for Roaming in 2024
Juniper Research, the foremost expert in the global roaming market, predicts there will be over 1.5 billion inbound roaming connections in 2024, which are expected to rise to 2.4 billion by 2028. global roaming market
The new global report assesses the wholesale roaming landscape across 60 key countries, forecasting the market for 5 years. The top 5 countries for inbound roaming subscribers in 2024 are identified as:
- US (164 million)
- France (147 million)
- China (136 million)
- Spain (70 million)
- Mexico (66 million)
Together, these countries will account for over 583 million inbound roaming connections; representing 40% of the global market share next year. The research identified factors such as strong tourist markets and established and comprehensive roaming agreements as key to high numbers of inbound roaming connections in these 5 countries. Specifically, VoLTE roaming readiness and contingencies for 5G and IoT connections will prove critical in maximizing the return on investment for wholesale roaming revenue.
Report author Elisha Sudlow-Poole commented: “As roaming networks become increasingly complex, operators must invest in identification tools to ensure they can accommodate the predicted influx of inbound roaming connections over the next 5 years, especially as the travel industry is expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels for the first time in 2024.”
Revenue Driven by Data-centric Use Cases global roaming market
The analysis forecasts global wholesale roaming revenue will rise from $7.1 billion in 2023 to $27.6 billion by 2028. Specifically, this growth of 286% over the next 5 years will be driven by the proliferation in the demand for data-centric use cases, including IoT over VoLTE and 5G networks.
Therefore, the research urges operators to invest in strong network analytics and device identification tools either in-house or via third-party roaming providers to enable the detection of data-intensive roaming connections to provide accurate billing settlements; maximising wholesale roaming revenue.
Wholesale Roaming Future Market Outlook global roaming market
Roaming has traditionally provided operators with a strong revenue stream. However, its value proposition is being significantly impacted by roaming frameworks, such as RLAH (Roam Like at Home) in some locations.
RLAH
In 2022, the RLAH initiative, which was originally meant to be terminated in June of the same year, was extended by the EU (European Union) until 2032. The RLAH policy
allows consumers that reside in the EU to use their phone to call, text and make use of data abroad as they would at home, whilst being charged the same rate.
The renewed RLAH policy has some added functionalities, including accessing the same quality both at home and abroad. The policy mandates operators must ensure
that roamer who use 5G services in their home country are given the best possible alternative whilst roaming; informing consumers on how the service could differ
from what they use at home. The updated RLAH policy also allows travellers to access emergency services whilst abroad. By June 2023, residents of Europe who travel to other EU countries will automatically receive a message reminding them about the 112 emergency contacts and other means to reach the emergency services.
Juniper Research predicts that the continued expansion of RLAH regulation outside of the EU, along with the introduction of bundles and offers, is expected to reduce
the cost of data, voice and SMS. Price reductions will however be offset by the very large increase in numbers that are roaming across all three consumer sectors, particularly data.
VoLTE Roaming & Interoperability Agreements
With the active sunsetting of 2G and 3G networks being announced by many operators across a wide range of channels, including North America, Europe and Asia
Pacific, operators are required to provide a replacement technology that is able to support the influx of traffic from legacy networks. These agreements will also provide a strong relationship for the introduction of 5G.
The spread of VoLTE networks is vital, as mobile operators switch off their legacy networks and move on to 4G, 5G NSA (Non-standalone) and SA (Standalone). Some
of the benefits of VoLTE on home networks include its support for migration to IP, enhanced voice quality, fast call setup, enabled multi-media communications, such
as video calls, and better efficiency than legacy technologies.
Indeed, in recent years, there has been a significant uptick in the move towards VoLTE and managed services are now seeing very positive growth in this area. Whilst
interoperating agreements in VoLTE roaming are becoming more widespread, one of the biggest challenges facing MNOs in hindering the wider adoption of VoLTE
roaming is the risk of incompatibility between HPMNs (Home Public Mobile Networks) handsets and the corresponding VPMN (Visited Public Mobile Network).
OEMs and mobile operators must continue to collaborate to ensure that devices that are capable of VoLTE roaming also have the correct spectrum bands to function well
with the preferred roaming partner.
Impact of Travel Mobility Enabled by eSIMs
Historically, network operators have been hesitant to adopt eSIM technology, viewing it as disruptive to their existing business models. In competitive markets such as the UK and the US, operators place a high value on consumer loyalty and therefore do not view eSIM technology as an attractive venture.
However, as the smartphone market has seen a rise in the deployment of eSIM-supported and eSIM-only devices, driven specifically by Apple, operators are now forced to support eSIM technology.
As technology progresses and eSIMs become more accessible to consumers, eSIM usage is increasing. As the technology allows travellers to use their devices without the need to change a physical SIM card or switch to a local carrier so the prospect for the consumer rises.
Juniper Research believes that as MVNOs start to increasingly turn to eSIM for roaming, operators need to adapt to these changes by offering more flexible and
affordable roaming solutions to their customers.
Indeed, there is also some debate as to how the cost of eSIMs compares to the cost of traditional SIM solutions. It is important to note that in order to support eSIM
technology, operators will need to make an investment in the required infrastructure.
Despite this, Juniper Research believes that operators are well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing use of eSIMs. They have the infrastructure and resources
to exploit the technology and build new partnerships as proliferation grows.
Juniper Research believes that the widespread adoption of eSIMs will disrupt the roaming market, as it will cause an increase in in-app connectivity and sponsored
connectivity. Service providers that rely on connectivity for their core business models, such as Uber, can ‘sponsor’ connectivity from a network operator for a small
package of data. This enables consumers to use the service, without paying for operator data which can be expensive while roaming.
5G Data Roaming
Over the last 12 months, the 5G market has accelerated and the move towards 5G SA has intensified significantly with operators such as Vodafone, Orange and Elisa all
continuing the expansion of their 5G SA services worldwide. However, there remains a disconnect between Tier 1 operators who are more prepared for 5G than smaller operators that are struggling within an increasingly complex market.
As previously mentioned with VoLTE, 5G acceleration is being partly forced through due to the sunsetting of 2G and 3G. As such, 5G has become the driving force for
company focus, research and development, and innovation. This is due to 5G offering new challenges for operators, meaning the high bandwidth requirements
and subsequent high data usage are significantly higher than existing 4G networks.
The most pressing matter for operators is the signing of interconnect agreements that enable international roaming over 5G networks. Juniper Research believes that
these connections will become increasingly common in a greater number of countries