Over 1 Billion Generative AI (GenAI) Smartphones to be Shipped Cumulatively During CY2024-2027
This year, 2024., will be pivotal for Generative AI (GenAI) smartphones, with preliminary data projecting their shipments to reach over 100 million units in 2024, according to an upcoming report, “GenAI Smartphone Shipments and Insights”, from Counterpoint Research’s Smartphone 360 Service. By 2027, we expect GenAI smartphone shipments to reach 522 million units, growing at a CAGR of 83%.
Counterpoint Research defines GenAI smartphones as a subset of AI smartphones that uses Generative AI to create original content, rather than just providing pre-programmed responses or performing predefined tasks. These devices will run size-optimized AI models natively and come with certain hardware specifications. Our short-term GenAI landscape sees OEM roadmaps touching on four main areas: info provisioning, image building, live translation, and personal assistant applications.
Samsung and Qualcomm are immediate leaders, as current product offerings and capabilities position them as first movers.
Similar to what it did with foldable, Samsung is likely to capture almost 50% of the market for the next two years, followed by key Chinese OEMs like Xiaomi, vivo, HONOR and OPPO. Samsung earlier highlighted the use case of its Galaxy AI on smartphones. This is one example of how OEMs are geared to differentiate their upcoming smartphones, and GenAI will play a key role in that differentiation.
Qualcomm is likely to capture over 80% of the GenAI smartphone market for the next two years. MediaTek is likely to catch up with its Dimensity 9300-based devices.
Research Director Tarun Pathak said, “The share of GenAI smartphones in the overall smartphone market will be in single digits through next year. But those numbers will not accurately reflect the amount of excitement and marketing hyperbole we are expecting to see.”
Pathak added, “We are working to a standard definition developed with our clients and partners, reflecting inputs from across these key players. Next year is about learning and we expect GenAI smartphones to hit an inflection point in 2026 as the devices permeate through the broader price segments.”
Global GenAI Smartphone Share and Forecast, 2023-2027
Source: Counterpoint Research Smartphone 360 Service, GenAI Smartphone Shipments and Insights Report
VP & Research Director Peter Richardson said, “AI has been a feature of smartphones for the last few years. We now expect to see the emergence of smartphones optimized to run GenAI models in addition to the normal use of AI in smartphones. The likely use cases will include creating more personalized content, smarter digital assistants with unique personalities and conversation styles, content recommendations, and more. However, this will also require addressing issues like running into memory constraints and will likely lead to a hybrid approach in some cases. Nonetheless, one thing is for certain – we are entering an era where smartphone users no longer need to align to their devices; it will be the other way around with GenAI smartphones.”
vivo Bets on Generative AI to Elevate the Smartphone Experience Generative AI (GenAI) Smartphones
vivo launched the BlueLM along with other new technology pillars during the 2023 vivo Developer Conference held on November 1. The self-developed AI big model can provide comprehensive and scalable AI capabilities from cloud to edge, with the number of parameters ranging from 175 billion to 1 billion.
vivo also announced the establishment of the ‘1+2+N’ matrix, which has BlueLM as its backbone. Here, the ‘2’ refers to the enhanced voice assistant ‘Blue Heart V’ and the robot app “Blue Heart Qianxun” to execute natural language conservation, while the ‘N’ represents unlimited possibilities enabled by specially tailored models. These custom models normally demand less computing and memory and are more efficient and affordable when running a specific task.
On December 21, vivo held a press conference at its new headquarters in Dongguan, China, where the BlueLM was again the highlight. During the event, vivo showcased several generative AI applications powered by BlueLM. With the vivo X100 or X100 pro, AI can be instructed to write a review, generate a transcript for a blog post or summarize an article, and even draw a picture with a simple description. It also enables a smarter voice assistant with a significant improvement in understanding human speech, thus providing access to desired services and content more efficiently.
Moreover, BlueLM on the cloud has hundreds of billions of parameters. When chatting with the ‘Blue Heart Qianxun’, conservations become more natural and meaningful, and we can soon expect more accurate and informative answers to myriad questions.
The new wave of technological advancement is also favorable to visually impaired individuals. There were demos where AI recognized different objects with the rear camera and vocally described them. The function can also be used to find people and animals. The move resonates with Vivo’s commitment to technology sharing.
The above-mentioned demonstration is just the tip of the iceberg of the promise of generative AI, which is bound to elevate the smartphone experience. Commenting on its development, Counterpoint Senior Analyst Bai Shenghao said, “In 2024, top OEMs will continue to explore new possibilities atop in-house big models, and the local implementation of various generative AI applications will become a key differentiator for premium smartphones. Meanwhile, part of practical use cases will be introduced to more affordable models by connecting to the cloud, so more smartphone users can help train the big models.” According to Counterpoint’s latest forecasts on generative AI smartphone penetration, 40% of smartphones shipped in 2027 will be capable of locally running several generative AI applications.
Currently, Chinese OEMs attach greater importance to the Large Language Model (LLM). With enough training, an LLM will be able to interpret texts, voice, and images more accurately, leading to a significant increase in smartphone productivity as smartphone interaction becomes more instinctive and natural over time. Bai added, “The combination of foldable and generative AI technologies will make the smartphone an indispensable mobile productivity powerhouse in the near future.”
