eSIM-Enabled Devices Poised for Rapid Expansion as They Reach Key Turning Point
Counterpoint’s latest eSIM Devices Market Outlook report forecasts that over the next five years, the global shipment of xSIM-capable devices, encompassing various form factors such as hardware-based eSIM (eUICC), iSIM (iUICC), nuSIM, and Soft SIM, is expected to exceed 6 billion units. eSIM-Enabled Devices
The adoption of eSIM technology has surpassed the inflection point and is now entering a phase of rapid growth, fueled by its increasing utilization in smartphones, connected vehicles, and cellular IoT applications. The forthcoming surge in eSIM adoption will be driven by heightened awareness among mobile network operators (MNOs) and device manufacturers, who recognize the advantages of eSIM in terms of flexibility, cost efficiency, security, cost savings, and its pivotal role in the digital transformation of MNOs.
eSIM Shipments Surpass 424M in 2022, Defying Decline in Smartphone Demand
In 2022, shipments of eSIM-capable devices witnessed an 11% year-over-year growth, reaching a total of 424 million units. This growth occurred despite a 3% year-over-year decline in overall shipments of cellular-connected devices, primarily due to reduced demand for smartphones. Globally, more than 275 MNOs currently support eSIM, offering connections to an average of over 30 different models of eSIM-capable consumer devices. Additionally, the number of cellular IoT modules and devices continues to expand steadily.
Commenting on the outlook for xSIM-capable device shipments, Research Vice President Neil Shah said, “The physical MFF2/WLCSP form-factor soldered eSIM chip has been the go-to standard for eSIM implementation alongside the other niche alternative implementations such as soft SIM and nuSIM. Over the next five years, hardware-based eSIM (eUICC) will remain the dominant eSIM form factor and will account for more than half of all shipments.”
“The first wave of mainstream iSIM adoption will be seen across IoT applications driven by leading IoT chipset and module players such as Quectel, Telit, Sequans and Sony Semi (Altair) in partnership with leading xUICC players like Kigen, G+D and Thales. Other key stakeholders driving the adoption of iSIMs would include Qualcomm, IDEMIA, Truphone, Redtea Mobile, Oasis SmartSIM, Apple, Samsung and Nokia. Beyond 2028, iSIM is projected to take over as the dominant SIM form factor, with the shipments of iSIM-capable devices poised to climb to a cumulative 4 billion units by 2030.” eSIM-Enabled Devices
eSIM Has Reached an Inflection Point, Set to Enter a Period of Hyper-Growth
Source: Global eSIM Landscape – Market Outlook and Forecast
Commenting on eSIM adoption across different device categories, Senior Analyst Ankit Malhotra said, “Smartphones have been key in driving primary eSIM awareness among consumers and MNOs, and will continue to be the dominant eSIM-capable device category. Cellular connectivity in smartwatches is growing steadily which is also helping increase the penetration of eSIM-supported smartwatches. The adoption of entitlement servers by MNOs worldwide is a testament to the growing number of smartwatches and other companion devices powered by eSIM. Other cellular-capable consumer devices such as laptops and tablets will also see rapid eSIM adoption in the coming years.”
“The number of IoT/M2M devices equipped with eSIM is poised to grow faster than consumer device categories due to the natural cost, space and remote device management benefits that eSIM offers. The new eSIM IoT specifications SGP.31 by GSMA will accelerate eSIM adoption in the IoT segments potentially eradicating complexities of the existing eSIM Remote Service Provisioning (RSP) platform SM-DP/SM-SR for M2M/IoT segments.”
eSIM Devices Forecast and Analysis
Among the emerging device categories, such as XR, drones, and cellular gateways/FWA CPEs, the fastest-growing segments are anticipated. The utilization of eSIM technology is set to play a crucial role in driving the adoption of 5G-connected drones, enabling various applications like last-mile delivery, disaster management, search and rescue, education, construction, and agriculture. Additionally, the regulation of beyond-visual-range drones in regions like Europe will further accelerate the adoption of eSIMs in this domain.
Another significant area of growth is the automotive and smart mobility sectors. Connected cars represent one of the most prominent and compelling use cases for eSIMs. Ensuring a consistent connectivity experience for mobile applications has become increasingly critical, particularly in safety-oriented scenarios such as eCall and the imminent advent of autonomous driving.
Here are some indicative prepaid eSIM card prices:
