The Next Big Thing in Urban Transportation: Electric Two-Wheelers
Electric two-wheelers, also known as e-bikes, e-scooters, or electric motorcycles, are vehicles that run on electric power rather than gasoline or diesel. They typically use a battery and an electric motor to power the vehicle, providing a more environmentally friendly and cost-effective mode of transportation compared to traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) two-wheelers. Electric two-wheelers come in different sizes and power outputs, from small low-power e-scooters to high-performance electric motorcycles, and are increasingly popular in many parts of the world due to their low cost of ownership and zero emissions. wheel electric
Asia accounts for more than 90% of all global two-wheeler sales, and it is unusual for a family not to own one in some countries. The three largest markets ranked by annual sales are China, India, and Southeast Asia. When compared to cars, light electric two-wheelers are much easier to produce, are subject to significantly fewer regulations, can carry much lower price tags, and are likely to entice a wider range of riders.
Why Asia Prefers Two-Wheelers: Low Incomes, High Fuel Costs, and Urban Congestion
The reasons for growth in these regions include personal disposable incomes remaining low on average, making cars unaffordable; fuel inflation rates making the direct cost of owning a petrol vehicle high and; dense and crowded urban centers with slow-moving traffic making two-wheelers the transport of choice for the masses.
India will overtake China to become the largest electric two-wheeler market. Source: IDTechEx
The market for electric scooters and motorcycles is booming outside of China as more countries are looking to shift away from ICE counterparts. While China is the largest market by sales volume, sales boomed early and are now on the decline. IDTechEx anticipates that Vietnam and India will take up larger market shares in the coming years as sales in China decline. Both China and India are the largest domestic production and sales markets for two-wheelers globally and also export their products overseas.
“Micro EVs 2023-2043”: A comprehensive analysis of the electric two-wheeler market in India, China, and Southeast Asia
Two-wheeler export performance is expected to increase due to increased requirements of e-commerce and last-mile deliveries in many export markets. The latest report from IDTechEx, “Micro EVs 2023-2043: Electric Two-Wheelers, Three-Wheelers, and Microcars“, includes a comprehensive analysis of the Indian, Chinese, and Southeast Asian electric two-wheeler market, covering model benchmarking, OEM market shares, and a 20-year sales forecast split by battery type and motor power. wheel electric
China: A Saturated Market
The electric two-wheeler market in China has been growing for 20 years with lead-acid batteries. The market peaked at over 30 million sales in 2016 and was expected to decline steadily. However, the introduction of a new national technical standard in 2019 is expected to cause sales to peak briefly during the transition period from 2019-2025 before stabilizing and exhibiting negative growth rates.
From lead-acid to Li-ion: the evolution of China’s electric two-wheeler market
The 2019 regulation will drive the uptake of Li-ion batteries from 27% in 2022 to over 90% by 2040, according to IDTechEx forecasts. Many of the electric scooters in China are simple, low-end models (<4 kW motor power) designed to be affordable to the masses and made by market leaders like Yadea and Aima, who continue to dominate sales. Premium brands like Niu capture lesser market shares.
India: A Growing Market wheel electric
India is one of the largest two-wheeler markets in the world. The two-wheeler is the most preferred means of commuting for the Indian population. India has witnessed strong growth in electric two-wheeler sales in recent years.
Supportive government policies, lower total cost of ownership, rising fuel prices, increased localization of manufacturing, and adoption of e-commerce platforms drive sales growth. The market is dominated by <4 kW e-scooters that reached price parity with ICE models. >4 kW models will slowly increase as battery prices fall. Ola’s S1 and Ather’s 450X models are establishing the premium high-power e-scooter segment in India, with new models expected to drive >4 kW market share.
Southeast Asia: ICE Dominant With Opportunity for Electrification
The two-wheeler market is dominated by ICE two-wheelers in Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam —collectively the Southeast Asian market leaders. The 2&3W sales in these four market leaders account for over 90% of total 2&3W sales in Southeast Asian countries. The market share of electric two-wheelers in Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines is relatively small, with less than 1.5% of all two-wheelers sold in these countries. Vietnam has the largest share of electric two-wheelers among these countries, and it grew substantially, from 5% in 2019 to 8% in 2020 and 10% in 2021.
Electric Two-Wheeler Market Expected to Skyrocket in Southeast Asia by 2043
The Vietnamese electric two-wheeler market is thriving, with the emergence of domestic makers like VinFast, Datbike, Arevo, and Pega, as well as foreign brands, including Yadea, Dibao, and Niu. The use of battery swapping to eliminate charging woes is seeing prominence as well. In 2022, about 470,000 electric two-wheelers (mainly low-power e-scooters) were sold, with IDTechEx forecasting sales to cross over 9 million units by 2043.
The IDTechEx report covers the regions mentioned above in more detail and EU+UK and US markets for electric two-wheelers. It provides insights into these markets from a technical and commercial perspective with forecasts for future demand.
Electric Motorcycle Market to Grow Steadily Although Challenges Exist wheel electric
The scooter segment has a higher number of electric models on offer (thanks to various Chinese products sold overseas) and offers a much lower total cost of ownership compared to ICE counterparts. This explains their popularity and growth. wheel electric
Electric motorcycles, however, remain a premium niche segment that must appeal to a crowd of enthusiastic riders. High-performance electric motorcycles are now coming to market, aiming to offer thrills without emissions. Italy is the largest European market, followed by Spain, France, Germany, and UK. These countries account for about 80% of electric motorcycle registrations in the EU+UK block. Sales of electric motorcycles have been consistently increasing in most countries over the past three years, indicating their growing popularity. However, in the US, where motorcycles are mainly used for leisure and lifestyle purposes, it can be difficult to market electric motorcycles due to the sentimental value placed on traditional bikes.
Electric motorcycles have different motor power outputs based on their type. Everyday cruisers generally use low-power motors, while performance superbikes use high-power motors. According to IDTechEx’s benchmarking, premium electric motorcycles priced around ~US$15,000 have larger capacity batteries and powerful motors, often based on higher voltage platforms (120-400 V). Entry-level variants offer performance comparable to some premium e-scooters, often using similar components packaged in a motorcycle frame.
Final Thoughts
In conclusion, the electric two-wheeler market is a rapidly growing industry with enormous potential, particularly in regions where personal disposable incomes remain low and dense, urban areas require efficient and affordable transportation options. China, India, and Southeast Asia are key players in this industry, with each region presenting unique challenges and opportunities. The future looks bright for the electric two-wheeler market as technology continues to advance, battery prices decrease, and governments provide more support for electrification initiatives. As such, we can expect to see increased investment in research and development, as well as new entrants in the market, driving innovation and growth for years to come.
