Counterpoint Research’s latest Global Smartphone Shipment Forecast predicts that global smartphone shipments will decline by 6% in 2023 to 1.15 billion units, the lowest level in a decade. global smartphone shipments 2023

Asia poses a significant challenge to optimistic growth, with economic obstacles impeding the expected revival of China’s economy that was anticipated earlier this year. Furthermore, the wider region is witnessing escalating downturns across its emerging markets.

In addition, North America persistently acts as a substantial hindrance to worldwide recovery, with a lackluster first half of the year positioning it for a steep full-year decline. Even with a robust job market and declining inflation, consumers remain reluctant to upgrade their devices. This reluctance is pushing replacement rates in the US and globally to unprecedented levels.

“There’s been a decoupling between what’s happening in the economy and consumers buying phones. So far this year it’s been record low upgrades across all carriers,” says Jeff Fieldhack, Research Director for North America.

“But we’re watching Q4 with interest because the iPhone 15 launch is a window for carriers to steal high-value customers. And with that big iPhone 12 installed base up for grabs promos are going to be aggressive, leaving Apple in a good spot.”

In China, “Apple is well positioned as the premium segment continues to gain more share.” states Ethan Qi, Associate Director for China.

Premium and ultra-premium growth is a trend that is happening globally and favors vendors like Apple which have portfolios heavily weighted in the higher segments.

2023 could mark the start of a new era for Apple as a resilient premium market and strong showing in the US could help it become number one globally in terms of annual shipments for the first time ever.  “It’s the closest Apple’s been to the top spot.  We’re talking about a spread that’s literally a few days’ worth of sales,” muses Fieldhack. “Assuming Apple doesn’t run into production problems like it did last year, it’s really a toss-up at this point.”

Background global smartphone shipments 2023

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.