Kaleido has provided yet another update to its global outbound and inbound tourism and roaming Data Hub, following the outbreak of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) that was first reported in Wuhan, China. Travel Recovery Expectations
The nature of the pandemic has meant that governments around the world have had to secure their borders to stop its spread. This includes countries that have implemented partial restrictions related to travel. With the exception of certain countries, almost all governments chose to impose strict travel restrictions. Despite easing of these restrictions by some countries, individuals are still choosing to avoid travel unless it is essential. This has created a situation where the COVID-19 crisis has reset the global travel industry.
UNWTO: MORE THAN 50% OF GLOBAL TRAVEL DESTINATIONS ARE EASING RESTRICTIONS, BUT CAUTION REMAINS
Global Travel Market: September 2020 Status
Kaleido Q2 2020 update, estimated a decline in outbound travel of around 64% and 1.3 billion in travel trip volume in 2020. This was closer to the H1 actuals as published by the UNWTO in September 2020, reporting a 65% decline in global travel volume in H1 2020.
Global Travel Market: H1 2020 Travel Decline Percentage
TRAVEL RECOVERY OUTLOOK
KALEIDO: 1.3 BILLION FEWER TRAVEL TRIPS WILL TAKE PLACE BY THE END OF 2020, A YEAR ON YEAR FALL OF 64%.
Based on the latest revisions to Kaleido forecasts, international travel including overnight and same-day travel reached 2 billion trips in 2019, and we now expect a fall in outbound travel of around 64% in 2020 to reach 738 million in trip volume, representing a decline of 1.32 billion.
Indeed, airlines have stated that it will likely be ‘years’ before volumes return to normal.
Kaleido aims to provide the most realistic scenarios while taking into account government steps such as placing restrictions on inbound arrivals, travel and flight cancellations as reported by airlines and travel agencies, alongside any major event (sporting, conferences etc) cancellations around the world. Kaleido will continue to monitor the various scenarios across key markets around the world and will issue necessary updates.
To recap, Kaleido travel recovery is primarily determined by 4 key factors:
- Passenger and business traveller mentality to continue flying to global destinations;
- Government travel legislation and regulation in place in 2021;
- Level of global recession impacting the tourism sector; and finally,
- Chance of the Coronavirus becoming seasonal.
In forecasting the growth and recovery trajectory across global markets, countries and travel corridors, Kaleido finalised 4 recovery phases in Kaleido forecast model, by region and country. This is illustrated in Kaleido reports and we’re happy to share with any parties wanting to learn more.
Global Travel Market: International Travel Volume Forecasts Travel Recovery Expectations
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KEY CORRIDOR TRAVEL RECOVERY OUTLOOK
KEY CORRIDOR TRAVEL RECOVERY OUTLOOKImportantly, some international travel corridors will recover quicker than others. Identifying these corridors is an essential element for companies whose business is dependent on travel activity.
Kaleido Intelligence’s Q3 Travel & Tourism research presents a comprehensive analysis of the inbound, outbound and travel corridors, providing a full understanding of the tourism travel market for over 1,000 key travel corridors.
Understandably, all countries and regions will witness a decline in outbound travel volume. China led the global source markets in 2019 and is predicted to move to the third position in 2020, with Germany taking the first position in terms of travel volume. However, key corridors from China will witness the highest growth as travel resumes. The below figure highlights the top 30 corridors witnessing the highest average annual growth rate over the next 5 years.
Global Travel Market: Key Travel Corridors Recovery CAGR Travel Recovery Expectations
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