According to the latest forecast report from Strategy Analytics, global smartphone market will maintain the downturn track in 2020 if the US-China trade war and the ban of Huawei continues, and the likelihood of global economic recession remains high.
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Under the worst case, researcher predict global smartphone shipment volume will down -3% YoY in 2020. However, the market would come back and rebound +3% YoY next year under the best case, in which we expect the likelihood of global economic recession remains low, US and China will sign a deal to ease the trade war, and the ban of Huawei will be lifted.
Samsung will remain as the largest smartphone vendor in 2020 in both scenarios, followed by Huawei and Apple. Samsung will maintain the leadership in Europe, Central Latin America and Africa Middle East, while Apple will remain the top position in North America. Huawei will top the chart and see a big growth in Asia Pacific region this and next year, mainly thanks to the resurgence in home market
Under the worst case, Strategy Analytics expects Huawei will see a big fall in overseas markets, but the resurgence in home market will offset the decline in overseas market to some degree. Huawei will survive and maintain as the second largest smartphone vendor in (after Samsung but ahead of Apple), thanks to the strong footprint in home market. China market alone would contribute to over 80% volume share in 2020.
However, Strategy Analytics expect Huawei will significantly lose ground in overseas markets under the US ban. OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi would see headwinds in home market in the following quarters.
To respond the US ban, Huawei has significantly reduced the reliance on the key components provided by US companies recent months. Meanwhile, the company is accelerating the development of Harmony OS and Huawei Mobile Service, which expect to replace Android and Google Mobile Service in the future if the ban continues. However, it is not like walking in a park to build up own mobile service and ecosystem. The Chinese company will face a uphill journey in 2020.