Coronavirus pandemic: German mobility down 8.5% in November 2020 on a year earlier

On weekends, decline in mobility is larger than on working days

The average mobility in Germany decreased by 8.5% in November 2020 compared to the same month last year. This emerges from a special evaluation of experimental data by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) one month after the partial lockdown to contain the corona pandemic came into force on November 2nd. german mobility

Accordingly, mobility decreased significantly in November, while in October there was a slight increase of 1.5% on average compared to the same month last year.

Regional differences: Largest declines in city-states

Mobility declined in November in 14 out of 16 federal states. The greatest declines can be observed in the city-states: In Hamburg and Berlin, average mobility has fallen by around 19% since the beginning of the restriction measures, in Bremen by around 16% compared to November of the previous year. In Brandenburg, however, mobility was around 12% and in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania around 9% above the level of the same month last year.

Differences in population mobility between weekends and working days can also be determined across the federal states. On working days, mobility in the first four weeks of the partial lockdown was on average 7% below the previous year’s level, while the decline on weekends was significantly higher at around 15%. This suggests that large parts of the population pursued their regular occupations during the week, while leisure and recreational activities that usually take place on weekends were rather neglected. These differences can also be determined for the travel distance: Since the introduction of the restriction measures on November 2, the average travel distance on working days has decreased by 10% compared to the previous year, on weekends by 25%. The numbers show

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Course of mobility and 7-day incidence german mobility

The analysis of population mobility is based on the assumption that mobility is an important indicator for the number of social contacts, which in turn has a direct effect on the infection rate. Assuming that a decrease in mobility with a time lag of 21 days leads to a decrease in the 7-day incidence, the mobility before 21 days and the current incidence should be consistent. The estimated time delay is based on the assumption that it takes approximately 21 days for a person who has contracted the coronavirus to be included in the incidence values. Therefore, the mobility situation 21 days ago is related to the current mobility and incidence.

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Looking at the course of the past few months, the average mobility in Germany already fell slightly in the course of October and significantly after the partial lockdown came into effect on November 2nd. Mobility remained at a low level until the end of November; a slight upward trend is not discernible until the end of the month. The incidence curve for corona infections shows that the exponential growth in new infections that was still visible in October could be stopped. A slight decrease in the 7-day incidence can finally be observed in the 48th calendar week.

An interactive map in the ” EXDAT – Experimental Data ” section on the website of the Federal Statistical Office shows how daily mobility has changed in the individual rural districts and urban districts in the past calendar week . The offer is updated daily and gradually expanded. german mobility

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