Apple has paused all product sales, including iPhones, in Russia in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine last week. The company outlined a number of actions in response to the invasion including halting online purchase of Apple products, stopping all exports into its sales channels in the country and limiting Apple Pay transactions in Russia. apple russia

According to Strategy Analytics recent country-wise smartphone tracker, Apple was estimated to account for 10% share in terms of shipments, and 30% share by revenue term in full year of 2021.

As the other leading smartphone OEM’s in Russia are likely following suit and join Apple‘s actions on Russia in the coming days, it is highly likely that smartphone market in Russia will be heavily impacted if the war drags on for weeks or months as the country ranks one of top 5 biggest countries by smartphone shipment and one of top 10 largest countries by smartphone revenue recent years.

I am deeply concerned with the situation in Ukraine. We’re doing all we can for our teams there and will be supporting local humanitarian efforts. I am thinking of the people who are right now in harm’s way and joining all those calling for peace.

— Tim Cook (@tim_cook) February 25, 2022

How Will the Ukraine Russia War Impact Global Smartphone Market?

The escalating Ukraine war is still on the early stage. It is changing very quickly and hard to predict how it will evolve and end. Meanwhile, multiple sanctions imposed against Russia financial and semiconductor sector are under development as well. Based on all available info at this moment, Strategy Analytics has come up with the scenario model forecast to analyze how different scenarios will impact global smartphone market.

Under the best scenario, SA predicts global smartphone shipments will only grow +1% YoY in 2022. The growth rate will be improved to +3% YoY in 2023. Central Eastern Europe will take a hit badly, followed by Western Europe. All vendors are facing big headwinds, especially the major players in Russia and Ukraine amid the devastating war. Meanwhile, SA expects the impact on smartphone manufacture and supply chain under this scenario would remain limited and manageable. The downturn will mainly come from the damped consumer spending in Russia, Ukraine and other related markets. Coupled with the declined smartphone volumes, SA expects global smartphone average wholesale price will keep rising to face the lengthened supply constraint and higher inflation rate, as well as higher logistics and related costs etc.

Under the worst scenario, a worldwide energy crisis and global economic recession would be triggered. Global smartphone manufacturing and supply chains will be massively disrupted as well. The global smartphone market will see a sharp fall in 2022.No regions and vendors are exceptional.

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